Variance Simulator
See what your winrate really looks like over a sample — simulated runs, confidence bands, and downswings.
Hands
90% confidence band Expected Simulated runs
Chance of Losing16.2%
Bottom 5%-1,661 bb
Expected Result2,500 bb
Top 5%6,661 bb
Median Downswing1,932 bb
Bad-Run Downswing3,068 bb
Every line is a possible version of you playing the same hands with the same winrate. The spread between them is pure variance — this is why winning players still have losing months, and why judging your winrate over a small sample is a trap.